So long Fred, Ron, Duncan and Rudy?
After Tuesday’s Michigan primary, here is how CNN counts the delegates:
Romney 52
Huckabee 22
McCain 15
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Giuliani 1
Hunter 1
On Saturday, 55 more delegate go up for grabs; 31 in Nevada and 24 in South Carolina. Giuliani leads in the latest polls in Nevada, with Romney 5 points behind. But, Huckabee is leading in South Carolina; Romney trails by 8 points. If Romney were to win a majority of those, it would put every other campaign behind the eight ball going into Super Tuesday. Huckabee, in order to keep his campaign afloat needs to pull off a win in one of those states, with South Carolina being the most likely. McCain could be in trouble polling only at 11% in South Carolina and 7% in Nevada. Fred has been suddenly very vocal lately, realizing that he needs to warm up his voice in preparation of singing his swansong. He must win. And, it doesn’t look like he is going to. Stick forks in Paul and Hunter.
The interesting gambit is Giuliani who, like the hare of fable, has given the tortoises sizable head starts. He is banking on Florida to kick-off his so-far-slumbering campaign. If he wins Florida, this strategy may work, but he cannot afford a loss in Florida going into Super Tuesday. That would probably spell disaster as the voters could reconsider his viability if he has a poor showing. While it is not do-or-die time for Rudy, he is rapidly putting himself in that position. Will it pay off? That’s anyone’s guess right now. He is currently leading in Nevada, but trailing McCain by 2 points in Florida.

