Obama is wavering. That doens’t say much about him as a leader, but it is a good sign. He swept into office on rhetoric that Afghanistan was the “good war.” General McChrystal is aksing for an additional 40,000 (or 60,000 depending on who you ask) troops to prosecute the war in Afghanistan. That, by itself, is an admission that the war there is not going well. Indeed, it seems a “surge” is needed if we are to avoid “defeat.”
Nonetheless, it seems President Obama is wavering with respect to backing up his claim that Afghanistan is the good war. Lately he has been intimating that McChrystal is out of luck. Neocons are apoplectic about the prospect of abandoning any sort of surge strategy in Afghanistan. After all, they point out, the surge worked in Iraq. True enough. But what evidence is there that it will work in Afghanistan? Indeed, everyone needs to stop for a moment and examine what the goal in Afghanistan is.
We went there to depose the Taliban because they were harboring al Qaeda. That mission was accomplished. The Taliban no longer has a central role in Afghanistan. On the other hand, it seems that we are inadvertently propping them up monetarily, so they can fight us more effectively. Nonetheless, they no longer hold the reins of power. An American puppet government has been installed. But I always thought the real goal in Afghanistan was to destroy al Qaeda and to kill Osama bin Laden. That goal has not been accomplished. Furthermore, it appears that the United States military, under the rules of engagement they are saddled with, is not up to that job. Osama is likely squirreled away somewhere in Pakistan where the Army and Marines cannot reach him. Indeed, to reach him, America would have to open a new front in this war – a prospect which is unlikely to occur.
Given the state of events, a withdrawal from Afghanistan following our rout of the Taliban eight years ago could be couched as a victory to ameliorate the bloodlust of the neocons. At the same time it may entice bin Laden to emerge from his hidey-hole where someone can take a Whack-a-Mole shot at him. Unless McChrystal proposes pursuing an illegal war over the border of Pakistan (ala Cambodia – which might net him a Nobel Peace Prize like that which Kissinger enjoyed after his advocacy of the bombing campaign in Cambodia), there is absolutely no prospect of bringing the mastermind of 9-11 to justice through military means. Or we can continue doing what we have been doing and hope that it nets different results.
With luck, Obama will decide that further prosecution of this “good” war is not in America’s interest and will bring the troops home. As a result, there may be some chance that someone will have a chance to take out bin Laden. But, none of this can happen if Obama caves to General McChrystal and continues the path we’ve been following. A new strategy is called for and hopefully, Obama’s gutlessness will accidentally provide it.
UPDATE: Hey, I know. Why don’t we set up a country where we know the terrorists will set up camps to plot against us? At least then we’ll know where the terrorists are. I propose we allow Afghanistan (which seems to be immune from stable government) to be that location.