Conservative Donnybrook

I have been counting on my fingers and toes and I think I’ve come to a startling conclusion. We got hosed.

By my figures, it appears the total outlays of the federal government for all spending is somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.8 trillion. Since 1996, that represents an overall increase of $2.1 trillion over the total outlays then or an increase of about 5.9% per year in total outlays. The plan that the Senate just approved proposes to “cut” $917 billion of spending over the next ten years. That sounds great, but overall spending during those same ten years will be $38 trillion if the budget does not increase at all year over year. The $917 billion spending “cut” compared against the total outlays in that context would represent a “savings” of roughly 2.4%.

But the chances that the budget will not increase by about as much as it historically has is remote. The more likely scenario is that the overall budget will continue to grow at least as fast as it has over the last decade or so. Using the 5.9% increase per year figure, the total outlays during the ten-year period would amount to $49.937 trillion (with total outlays in 2020 amounting to a whopping $6.385 trillion). That $917 billion in “savings” now represents a paltry 1.8% of the overall spending during the period.

Meanwhile, all this spending is doing no favors for the overall debt. The more suspicious of you might have discovered that this bill does not actually balance the budget. Rather, it decreases (imperceptibly, it turns out) the amount of debt that would have been added in any given year. During the period from 1996 to 2011, government receipts tended to grow by about 3.7% per year (while outlays during the same period increased by 5.9%, see the problem?). Receipts in 2011 are projected to be $2.1737 trillion. In 2012, they are projected to be $2.6274 trillion. Using the latter projection and figuring a 3.7% growth rate through 2020, the total deficits during that period amount to $20.217 trillion. The current U.S. government debt is $14.294 trillion. So, over the course of the next ten years while we’re busy “saving” $917 billion, the debt will more than double, ballooning to more than $34 trillion. Of course, it could be worse: the debt could have been $34.917 trillion.

If you want to be really depressed, consider that there are 312 million Americans. If the anticipated $34 trillion debt were paid equally (fat chance!) by each American, your share at the end of 2020 would be $108,974.40 ($435,897.20 for a family with the regulation 2.1 children). It sort of goes without saying that I was a bit perplexed at the outbreak of clapping on the House floor yesterday when our Representatives passed the plan.