As Bill has pointed out, I have been reticent to take a position on the recent hostilities in South Ossetia. The reason for this is quite simple: I don’t really know much about that region and its history. However, in the past week or so, I have been reading about it and, the more I read, the less I am convinced that the Russians are in the wrong. (They are most certainly in the wrong in Poland, but that is another matter…maybe).
Often, when I think about other regions of the world, I will attempt to analogize to an event or situation in American history (with which I am more familiar) which might provide parallels. In this case, although imperfect as all analogies are, there is a fair similarity between the situation as it exists in South Ossetia and that of Texas around 1845.
South Ossetia
As I understand the timeline, South Ossetia declared its independence from the Republic of Georgia in the early 1990s after the breakup of the Soviet Union. After its announced independence the Western nations refused to recognize the new government and regarded South Ossetia as part of Georgia. South Ossetia again declared independence in 2006. Again, the rest of the world failed to recognize the declaration. From about 1992 onward, Russian peacekeepers were located within South Ossetia to prevent large-scale conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia. However, a couple weeks ago, Georgia invaded South Ossetia in an attempt to “reunify” Georgia.
The people of South Ossetia appear to be largely Ossetian with Russian citizenship and are ethnically distinct from the people of Georgia.
Texas
Texas was originally the Northernmost border of Mexico, and after Mexico declared its independence from Spain, it suffered near financial collapse as a result of the war that accompanied that declaration. In the wake of their war for independence, the government opened the northern border to Americans willing to establish order in the Texas region. Unfortunately for Mexico, they were unable to control their borders (that sounds familiar) and Americans flooded into Mexico in unanticipated numbers. Fairly quickly, Americans became the most populous citizens of the Texas region, comprising a sizable majority of Texans. Like the South Ossetians, the Texans were of a different ethnicity from their government and identified more closely with the United States than with Mexico.
In 1835, Texas declared its independence from Mexico and Santa Anna invaded. After a disastrous clash at the Alamo, the Texan forces rallied and decimated Santa Anna’s forces at the Battle of San Jacinto effectively establishing Texas as an independent sovereign nation. In 1845, Texas petitioned for Statehood and joined the United States. However, Mexico never accepted Texas’ secession and accession into the United States and many Mexican politicians advocated an invasion of Texas. President Polk sent a expedition under General Zachary Taylor to secure the Texas border at the Rio Grande River. In April 1846, Mexico attacked a U.S. patrol and the war was begun.
Applying the Analog
In many ways, the conflict in South Ossetia is similar to the situation in Texas. An ethnic group, distinct from its putative government, declared its independence. Of course, in both cases, the government refused to recognize the independence of the breakaway territory, but the government with which the citizens of the breakaway region most closely identified sent troops to keep the peace. The big difference is the presence of the United States in the middle of the current conflict. There is no analog to that in the Mexican-American War. The equivalent would have been if Spain were to take sides with Santa Anna and Mexico against the United States. I daresay we would not have looked kindly on that sort of intervention on Spain’s part. In fact, it might have led to war against Spain as well – accelerating our eventual conflict with that country by about 50 years.
Some may argue that our annexation of Texas was unjust. And, Ulysses S. Grant said precisely that:
Generally, the officers of the army were indifferent whether the annexation was consummated or not; but not so all of them. For myself, I was bitterly opposed to the measure, and to this day regard the war, which resulted, as one of the most unjust ever waged by a stronger against a weaker nation. It was an instance of a republic following the bad example of European monarchies, in not considering justice in their desire to acquire additional territory.
In that sense, it would seem that Grant might side with the Georgians, finding the intervention of the Russians to be nothing more than an unjust land-grab by a strong nation at the expense of a weak one. Nonetheless, the question one needs to confront is, even granting Russia’s questionable moral position, if a third party had interfered in our annexation of Texas, how would we have reacted to them? Does it matter?
In a purely pragmatic sense, America needs to ask the question of where our interest lies. By backing Georgia, we are expending political capital in international affairs. In the long run, we have to believe that we will benefit from that expenditure. Might we not be better off attempting to improve our relationship with Russia? Dare we trust that any overture to Russia will result in a relationship in which we can repose our trust? It seems that our interest would be stronger in establishing a closer relationship with Russia, but the prospect of that happening due to the high level of mistrust between the nations makes that more aspirational than achievable. Nonetheless, do we gain anything by antagonizing Russia and what do we gain by developing the friendship of Georgia – a nation that, after pledging not to employ military force against Russia, nonetheless invaded South Ossetia and fired upon Russian peacekeepers? Can we trust Georgia?
I am reminded of the classic film, WarGames. This is a strange game. The only winning move is not to play. Perhaps we should consider a nice game of chess, preferably in our own hemisphere. The Russians are awfully good at chess.